As the Asian trading session unfolds on Monday, January 6th, gold prices are experiencing minor fluctuations, hovering around the $2641 per ounce mark, comfortably situated near the middle band of the Bollinger BandsThe decline seen last Friday pushed gold prices back from a three-week high, settling at $2639.62 per ounce, marking a notable decrease of approximately 0.69%. This shift was largely attributed to a stronger-than-expected ISM manufacturing PMI data from the US, coupled with rising US Treasury yields, which have created downward pressure on gold prices as market sentiments brace for potential economic and trade shifts in the United States.

The tariff and protectionist policies proposed by the current administration are expected to exacerbate inflationary pressures, potentially slowing the Federal Reserve's pace of interest rate cuts and limiting the upward trajectory of gold prices

Following three anticipated rate cuts in 2024, it is predicted that only two rate cuts will occur in 2025 due to persistent inflationary concernsWhile December's manufacturing figures in the US seem to be on the verge of recovery, bolstered by new orders, there remains uncertainty regarding the outlook, primarily stemming from possible tariff increases that could raise the costs of imported raw materials.

Last Friday, the Institute for Supply Management reported that the manufacturing PMI for the previous month rose to a level of 49.3, marking the highest reading since March and an improvement from November's 48.4. However, a PMI below 50 indicates contraction in the sector, which makes up about 10.3% of the economyThis reading also marks the ninth consecutive month in which the PMI has remained below the neutral threshold of 50. Economists had previously forecasted that the PMI would remain unchanged at 48.4. The aggressive monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve in 2022 and 2023 aimed at curbing inflation has significantly impacted the manufacturing sector

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However, confidence surveys, including the PMI, may have exaggerated the extent of the decline in factory production.

The gold market analysis for January 6 suggests further exploration:

Gold opened the previous trading day around $2658.0, experiencing slight upward movement in the Asian session to hit a daily peak near $2665 before reversing courseFollowing consecutive drops in the European and US sessions, the price fell to a new daily low near a strong support level of $2637. The daily candlestick closed with a significant bearish trendAnalyzing the daily chart, the Bollinger Bands display a flattening trend, with candlesticks trading above the middle bandThe 5-day and 10-day moving averages have begun shifting upward from low levels, indicating potential bullish divergence, while the MACD histogram shows a reduction in momentum

The KDJ indicator suggests a golden cross, reinforcing the expectation for a short-term rebound today.

For trading gold on January 6, some recommended strategies include:

1. Consider entering long positions near the 2636/2638 zone, with a stop loss set at $6.50 below, aiming for upward targets of $2652, $2666, and $2690;

2. If the price tests around 2620/2622, consider going long, with a stop loss of $6.50, looking to target levels of $2635 and $2640;

3. Sell positions near the resistance range of 2688/2690, with a stop loss of $6.50, targeting downward levels of $2678 and $2670;

Analyzing the silver market on January 6:

Silver opened on the previous trading day at approximately $29.55, initially fluctuating slightly during the Asian session and then bouncing back during the European session

After reaching a new daily high at around $29.89 in the US trading session, silver prices began to decline but still closed with a small bullish candle with a long upper shadowReviewing the daily chart, the Bollinger Bands indicate a trend of gradual contraction, with candlesticks trading below the middle bandHowever, the 5-day and 10-day moving averages are beginning to converge upward from low levels, showing potential bullish signalsThe MACD histogram indicates increasing momentum, while the KDJ indicator shows a bearish crossOverall, it appears silver is on a trajectory for another upward move, suggesting a strategy of buying on dips.

Proposed trading strategies for silver include:

1. Look to buy near the 29.35/29.46 range, with a stop loss at $29.12, targeting upward opportunities at $29.92, $30.68, and $31;

2. At any time the price touches near 28.85/29, consider entering long positions, with a stop loss set at $28.62, aiming for upward targets of $29.63 and $30;

3. Consider selling near the upper range of 31/31.25, with a stop loss at $31.48, targeting downward levels of $30.62 and $30;

Analyzing the oil market for January 6:

Oil opened the previous trading day around $72.70. After a slight rise in the Asian session, it began to retrace during the European session, dropping to the support level around $72.30 before rebounding

The price continued to rise during the US session, peaking at around $73.80 before closing higher with a strong bullish moveThe daily chart indicates the Bollinger Bands are expanding upwards, with candlesticks consistently rebounding from lower levelsThe 5-day and 10-day moving averages have begun trending upward, indicating a robust bullish rallyHowever, today's expectation suggests a possible pullback following the ascent, presenting a short-term chance to sell during retracements.

For oil trading strategies on January 6:

1. Look to sell near the resistance at 74/74.2, with a stop loss set at $75, targeting downward levels of $73 and $71.6;

2. Consider selling if the price approaches 75.5/75.7, with a stop loss of $76.8, targeting downward levels of $74 and $72.2;

3. If the price drops to around 70.3/70.5, consider entering long positions with a stop loss at $69.3, targeting upward levels of $71.2 and $73;